I must admit, I’m surprised. The Charlotte Observer published and op-ed
criticizing the Affordable Care Act, which is turning out to be not so affordable. A tsunami of rate increases is about to send shockwaves throughout North Carolina.
From Stephen Parente, a
Professor of Health Finance, the Associate Dean of the Carlson School of
Management, and the Director of the Medical Industry Leadership Institute at
the University of Minnesota.
North Carolina, buckle
up. Over the next few months, you’ll learn how much your health insurance
premiums will go up for next year. The early evidence isn’t good – the
percentage increase could be in the double digits.
But that’s nothing
compared to what you’ll face in 2017. In May, I released a comprehensive study
showing how the Affordable Care Act will likely play out in North Carolina over
the next few years. The diagnosis isn’t good.
First, the short
version. In two years, the ACA’s structural problems will lead to substantial
premium increases. Once that happens, North Carolinians will likely leave the
insurance market in droves. They’ll have little choice – they won’t be able to
afford health insurance because federal subsidies won’t keep up with the rapid
price increases. Within a decade, this could swell the ranks of the state’s
uninsured by 57 percent.
This isn’t baseless
speculation. I reached this conclusion using a peer-reviewed economic model
published in several health journals. It was funded by private and government
sources, including the Department of Health and Human Services, and has been
cited by multiple Supreme Court justices in ACA-related rulings.
But why won’t this
happen until 2017? Because that’s the year when the Affordable Care Act goes
into full effect and certain temporary provisions begin to sunset. The changes
will affect all plans sold for 2017 and beyond.
This end result is not surprising
to many of us, who’ve been critical of this federal monstrosity. Hopefully, the
voters will turn their wrath on Senator Kay Hagan, who shoved this bill of
goods down our throats.
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